Ice on the Moon

Looked at the news this morning and the Amazon is burning, Greenland is melting, and this evening David Koch is dead. Yesterday spacexnews had an article about nuclear power in space. The comments were truly idiotic. Surprised my name was not brought up since I endlessly commented about nuclear energy and space propulsion. They are the most disgusting creeps on the internet by far. And it seems there are some planets that might be habitable not too far away. Better start building those starships if we are going to send any by 39.

I only expect the one comment so I might as well reply to it with an edit:

39 is a Queen fan thing.
Not really happy with that internet article since it absolutely shows how politically biased the space program decision-making process is. I am pushing 60 and have been reading about this technology and been hands-on in the military since I was 20. I have worked on and crewed several types of vehicle and aircraft as a systems troubleshooter and operator/aircrew. And being interested in this technology and history and being a voracious reader has given me what I believe is a unique perspective. My big five personality profile is high on openness so I see this in a different way than those who are more…conservative. My view is all about what works or will work. And this is what I think:
Due to the Parker-Dyson-Spudis Continuum only nuclear pulse is going to enable humans to travel Beyond Earth and Lunar Orbit (BELO). Nuclear Thermal Rockets are a dead end simply because it is hard enough keeping a chemical rocket from melting. Trying to contain a reaction a million times more powerful results in Isp’s only about double that of chemical rockets. Pathetic. No other term for it except maybe incredibly wasteful. Stan Ulam understood the problem and solved it with bombs which provides Isp’s in the tens of thousands. There are of course intelligent people like Dyson and Solem who have followed Ulam but their work is not being considered. Why? Because of the eye-roll factor of using bombs for propulsion. Very simple details like this are trapping humankind on Earth.

 

Looks like the second quarter of 2021 for the first flight of the Space Launch System, just under two years from now. Plenty of time for NASA to rationalize their Human Space Flight program by abandoning LEO and redirecting that over 4 billion a year into expanding SLS launch cadence. In my view the critical pieces of hardware needed to create a cislunar infrastructure are going to be first 6 to 8 SLS launches a year, then a Lander that can shuttle water up to wet workshops, and of course a double-hull 50 foot diameter upper stage “Fat Workshop.”

Concerning a recent article I read about the Fermi Paradox:

https://phys.org/news/2019-08-world-history-silent-cosmos-humans.html

The simple explanation could very well be correct: life is too stupid to survive. We may reach a certain level of technology and then invariably self-destruct.

My view on this is our own mortality virtually guarantees extinction in a self-similar way. Who cares (very much) about a hundred years from now? If tomorrow they revived some dog that had been frozen without damage it might change everything. We might then be like the salmon of the galaxy that make it upstream. If death was no longer certain would we not then have a reason to focus and combine in a collective effort to reverse aging and travel to other stars?

It is discouraging that even supposed “visionaries” like Musk and Bezos do not understand this.

And all that methane in the permafrost is also being released. If we were to start building Super Heavy Lift Vehicles next year and launching them every other month to start, and ultimately once a week, that would be how to address climate change. Actually, the only way to address climate change with any chance of success before it kills a certain percentage of the human race. Those launchers would be sending “fat workshops” and robot landers to the Moon for starters. Sensors on lunar probes to find those likely immense lava tubes are also the first order of business. Immediately identifying these tubes as factory sites is extremely important.

As these factories are slowly brought on line on the Moon, on Earth the best strategy is molten salt solar thermal powerplants. Along with a elevated electric train infrastructure that transports people during the workday and cargo at night, this would ideally be the benchmark for new energy production and infrastructure. By cutting back and going to ever more austere standards (“decarbonization”) the damage will be minimized while the factories are built on the Moon. Until the day finally comes and commercial power is beamed down from orbit and the fossil fuel powerplants are shut down one by one. It is at this point beam propulsion will enable true airliners to space and mass migration will become the next step. Eventually, within perhaps two centuries, the Earth will have a rapidly shrinking population and become a place to visit. The majority of the human race will live in space.

 

Certainly not a shiny starship!

I could predict a rock causing loss of life and a second space age launched to detect, intercept, and deflect asteroid and comet impact threats. Or weather events that cannot be interpreted as anything other than climate change and space solar power as the only solution. Perhaps it will be the realization we are at risk of extinction from a short list of causes including an impact, an engineered pathogen, or volcanic eruptions. Unfortunately, the “odds” of an impact are trivialized, filthy lucre makes climate change a non-issue, and because we are “ephemorons” we just don’t care if our species is doomed.

The problem is we don’t believe we can defeat death. If we could freeze people without damage and revive them decades (or centuries) later then the world would change overnight. Humankind would suddenly realize they better start working on reversing aging and curing diseases. The movie Vanilla Sky, a remake of Abre Los Ojos, depicted a commercial featuring a dog frozen and revived symbolizing a new age. I remember as a boy watching a movie, “Frozen Alive” which was more a muddled moral lesson than a futuristic science fiction tale. The plot centered around an accidental handgun death but the poster on the Wikipedia page reads, “SUSPENDED ANIMATION OR DEATH!” and “TIMELY AS TODAY’S HEADLINES.” It seems as I age our species is not getting any smarter. We only care about our personal drama instead of what we all need to do if we are to survive.

I buy a lottery tickets once in a while and fantasize about sinking those millions into paying for some research on cryopreservation and making suspended animation a reality. Saving the world. Have not won of course. What would happen if some dog or monkey did get thawed out and revived successfully proving the viability of a new technique? Would the world actually change as I imagine? Would the great rescue begin? Questions with no answers. This blog is about the ice on the Moon as the critical enabling resource for expanding humankind into the solar system. This expansion would likely lead to star travel perhaps by way of the black hole starship if sleeper ships never happen. If neither sleeper ships or black hole ships are practical there is always the world ship concept.

Rutger Hauer died on the 19th. His role in Bladerunner was one of the most famous in science fiction cinema. Today I watched the trailer for the 4th season of The Expanse. As my entry into old-man-hood at 60 approaches, the deaths of all these actors and actresses I grew up with “gives me pause.” The replicants in Bladerunner only had 5 years to live and were trying to extend their existence. In regards to The Expanse it is interesting that alien technology has allowed access to other star systems. That MacGuffin was never addressed in Bladerunner. The “Off-World Colonies” were where replicants were employed. I have always considered freezing people and then reviving them undamaged after decades to be the future of star travel. It is also the only chance I and my wife have of living more than another quarter century.

Gerard K. O’Neill envisioned a future with artificial worlds mass-produced as needed. The human race could then expand an order of magnitude. I always wonder just how big these hollow moons will be. NASA SP-413 does not address size except in terms of the minimum hull strengths required for the different types of habitats. What it does state is under one revolution per minute is likely not going to work well. To produce centripetal force equivalent to one gravity at the equator of a sphere with one revolution per minute will require a diameter of over a mile with a circumference of about 3.5 miles. Considering the supertankers, bridges, and skyscrapers we build on Earth, constructs on this scale undertaken on the Moon at one-sixth Earth gravity and then launched into space for assembly make one mile diameter hollow spheres quite reasonable projects.

It follows if the mega-constructs we build on Earth scale up in lunar gravity into 1 mile spheres then building one mile diameter spheres on Earth could scale up to six mile diameter spheres in zero gravity space. For the sake of this argument consider mass-produced six mile in diameter hollow spheres. If half of the interior surface is considered living space this would be about 50 square miles. About the size of San Francisco which has a population of over 800,000. How long could such a sphere last? If designed to constantly recycle its structure in some way then as long as it received enough solar energy and a small supply of necessary materials it would maintain integrity for thousands of years and longer. Sending such hollow moons to other star systems at a few percent of the speed of light is of course the next step for humankind. Younger versions of Earth await these arks sent to transplant species from old Earth. Or if there are no Earth analogs then new star systems as simply new asteroid belt factories to create more hollow moons.

After slow boats the most probable development to follow will be black hole starships. Nothing else has come close to this concept and may not for centuries to come. It may be that some of those asleep on those slow starships will be awakened to transfer to a much faster ride. This might have worked for Bladerunner as these ships would have taken people to the nearest star systems in as many years as light years. The amount of energy necessary to create these miniature black holes would require a truly immense solar space solar energy infrastructure. Beam propelling Bernal Spheres at a few percent of the speed of light will also require very high energies, with bombs used to slow down on arrival, but black holes are a couple orders of magnitude more energy intensive. There may be little chance of seeing fast ships overtaking slow ones until well into or near the end of the next century.

By Gary Michael Church

Today marks half a century since humans landed on the Moon. I was 8 years old. Sadly, I have no memory of the event. Most likely my father was at sea and my mother busy with her many children. I cannot ask them as they are now gone. I remember Star Trek being on too late for me anymore and peaking around the corner to watch but always getting caught.  I do have a vivid memory of watching the later Apollo 13 splash down on a black and white elementary school TV and my teacher crying.

Humans measure history by the century and begin with the “Common Era” 20 of those centuries ago. When one closes in on 60 they appreciate 50 years as making up a life mostly completed. At that stage, as various health problems manifest, mortality can no longer be denied. In regards to humankind half a century is actually quite significant when considering the last 20 full centuries making up most of recorded history. Before long the first quarter of the 21st century will end and I will be 65 years old. Averaging the lifespans of my mother and father I will then have only 15 short years left to live. The numbers do not lie.

The numbers tell me from the Wright brothers first flight in 1903 to the launch of Apollo 8 which carried humans beyond Earth orbit 65 years passed. In terms of humankind expanding off-world, no comparable progress has occurred. This is disturbing due to the problem of extinction. While individual oblivion shocks our sensibilities what is far worse is the numbing effect death has on the collective drive to preserve our species. This  juxtaposition of the individual and collective illuminates why we are in such danger. Nobody cares about a century from now. We are all prisoners on death row.

My granddaughter, born in 2016, may live to see the next century arrive. There is the distinct possibility medical advances will give her an indefinite lifespan. I am not optimistic right now about the world she will be living in. The only solution, in my view, is selfish and pragmatic. The way to save the world is to freeze people. Actually, not freeze them, but cryopreserve them without damage. The very real possibility of this was demonstrated around the turn of the century with Norio Owada’s Cells Alive system.  If ever there was a conspiracy theory this is it: we can freeze people and then revive them without damage. Perhaps I should try and go on that conspiracy radio show and expose the truth: “they” actually know how to freeze without damage and nobody needs to die! It is a conspiracy. The reality is it is most likely as a species we are simply too stupid to save survive. That we could not save ourselves if a dinosaur killing asteroid or comet was suddenly detected a few days away, despite having the technology to see them coming and deflect them for over half a century, is…

To save the world we have to save each individual. Then everybody cares as a collective. No other option.

Freezing people would surely change everything overnight. The entire human race would mobilize in “The Great Rescue” to save the 150,000 people who normally die every day. Then addressing the logical progression of steps that automatically follow. With approximately 56 million a year being frozen, within ten years half a billion will be in cold storage. The short list is how to freeze people, how to freeze a couple billion while we figure out how to reverse aging, and what to do when we start bringing them all back to life. Freezing people makes star travel practical so solving the first solves the last.

 

 

 

 

 

Space is the Cure for Climate Change
by Gary Michael Church

The energy problem cannot be solved on Earth; the energy must come from off-world.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), states immediate action on climate change is required if civilization is to avert disastrous levels of global warming. This problem was foreseen in the 1970’s by the prophet of space colonization, Gerard K. O’Neill. Unfortunately, contemporary neoliberal false prophets promote a different view.

In his book, The High Frontier, O’Neill mentioned the warming of the planet and offers space based solar power as the replacement for fossil fuels and the economic engine enabling migration to space colonies.

The time frame for setting up factories on the Moon is at least a half a century. Once production of orbital solar power stations begin it may take another quarter century before power beamed to antennae fields on Earth completely power the planet. There is also a high probability of beam propulsion being developed in concert with space solar commercial energy. The time frame for beginning migration of the majority of the human race into space is a minimum of a century. Once the exodus begins it would accelerate as more mass produced habitats (Bernal Spheres) become available.

The idea of mass producing miles in diameter hollow spinning moons has an undeserved eye-roll factor as zero gravity and plentiful energy make it far less a challenge than it seems. O’Neill proposed a “mass driver” to shoot lunar material off the surface to Libration Point foundries shaping these immense constructs. Plenty of factory space up there and all the energy you need.

A century from now Earth will have a population of between nine and fifteen billion people. Global warming is predicted to cause food shortages and other calamities that will likely keep the population at a lesser figure. Arguments citing the error of Erlich’s “The Population Bomb” and climate change denial will fill libraries but the demographics are now clear. We are in trouble. The deniers will be cursed and scorned by generations to come as some of the worst criminals in history.

The technology to move tens of billions into space to artificial worlds numbering in the tens of thousands by the next century is not science fiction. There is no miracle alien technology, no unobtainium or wishalloy needed, no handwavium required. The engineering challenges are clear and well understood.  The effort presently consumed by military projects and a vast service economy labor pool prove the resources are available.

To lift hundreds of thousands of tons at a time off the surface of the Moon without the benefit of yet-to-be-built solar powered beam propulsion seems a chicken or egg first problem. In reality another technology is readily available in the form of Nuclear Pulse Propulsion (hydrogen bombs). Considering the energy required for 10 billion people to live with a western standard living an international new green deal space civil works project is likely the only solution. It would  far more difficult to build solar and wind on Earth without contributing carbon that accelerates climate change in a self-defeating feedback loop. Space energy generated by power stations built with lunar resources would be zero carbon.

While notable celebrities have promoted the idea of humans becoming a multi-planet species there are problems with their various visions for the future. The first glaring deficit is the possibility we might go the way of the dinosaur before we ever get off-world. The originator of a “Space Force” may not be viewed kindly by history, but if the concept includes defending the planet from asteroid and comet impact threats he might be redeemed in one sense. Stanger things have happened.

The most efficient path to effect a force of spaceships capable of intercepting impact threats is by way of lunar resources. The work of the late Dr. Paul Spudis detailed the ice at the lunar poles as the critical key to revolutionizing space exploration. Water as cosmic ray shielding enables a “Parker-Dyson-Spudis Continuum” -recognizing the work of Eugene Parker and Freeman Dyson on shielding space travelers and nuclear space propulsion.

The logical progression is the Moon first using Super Heavy Lift Vehicles with their upper stages utilized as wet workshops. By using double-hulled “fat” stages attached to each other with tethers, the outer hulls filled with lunar water, a near sea level radiation one gravity environment is available. They can transit back across the cislunar sea to GEO to be used as commercial platforms or mate with nuclear modules and depart from Low Lunar Orbit as true spaceships.

To remove all nuclear weapons from Earth (into deep space), to power the planet with close to zero carbon emissions, to eventually reduce the world population to pre-industrial numbers; all this is possible, and likely necessary, if our species is to survive. At the same time the superpower nuclear arsenals are removed to deep space, the building of tremendous lunar factories, and generating more space solar energy than all the power plants on Earth combined (and making a “Nuclear Moon” the new home of the nuclear industry).

Space can realize the dreams of many disparate groups in one combined initiative. Space is the solution to the most serious problems facing humankind- and much more not described in this short commentary. We have the technology and the resources. We need only choose to go.

Gary Church, who writes frequently about space travel, has published a magazine article entitled “Water and Bombs” promoting Nuclear Pulse Propulsion. He blogs at Ice on the Moon.

I finally seem to have ended mourning Dr. Spudis. It was a terrible blow losing him.

On the bright side, the Toxic Dragon blew up yesterday. Hopefully it is one more nail in the coffin of Commercial Crew.

It might finally be time to try and take this blog mainstream and start allowing comments. I will have to think about it and also some new themes. The idea of using Blue Origin stages to replace the SRB’s on the SLS seems to be a good idea to try and promote.

Edit: One sociopathic NewSpace  cyberstalker has linked this page for ridicule and calls it the “New Gary booster” (a play on the New Glenn).

After Apollo we accomplished “LEO return” which was both a step backward and a wrong turn. LEO stopped being space exploration after Apollo 8 left it far behind. Abandoning LEO in favor of funding “LLO return” is the right path to correct that near half a century old mistake.

The three problems with LLO are first the mascons that make low lunar orbits unstable. Stable “frozen” orbits are now understood and that problem is solved. The second problem is the radiation environment and the solution is ice-as-water-shielding dipped out of the Moons shallow gravity well. The third is of course getting hardware there and a wet workshop/robot lander combination for a Super Heavy Lift Vehicle can place large habitats in LLO and fill their radiation shields. The eventual 130 metric ton lift of the SLS makes this practical with few technical challenges.

The first such water shielded workshops could also be utilized as lunar cyclers to provide commuter service to and from the Moon. This would make the Muskrats happy by possibly giving the hobby rocket a job as a taxi intercepting the cyclers as they swing around the Earth.

“While the advent of lower expense through reusable rockets is touted as a major factor for lowered cost-”

The NewSpace mob are fraudulent space advocates. It has become clear they could care less about Human Space Flight and consider it a P.R. device. They care about one thing and one thing only: promoting the flagship company.

They have been posing as Human Space Flight supporters for close to a decade when in reality they are the worst thing that has ever happened to space exploration.

By conflating satellite launch with Human Space Flight they have popularized this confidence scheme handing over a satellite launch company paid for with taxpayer dollars.
It is a dead end road.

“-we know giant impacts periodically destroy life forms on Earth. Perhaps someday, humans will be killed off too, but our descendants living on the Moon and beyond will survive and prosper.”

A state sponsored Super Heavy Lift Vehicle program (the SLS) is the only hope of a permanent human presence Beyond Earth Orbit (BEO). The NewSpace fans have posted libraries of death-to-SLS propaganda over the years and forever inferred it best to “hand it all over to Musk” and dismantle the space agency. The astroturfing is incessant and…it never ends.