https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/01/republicans-violence-save-us-poll
If 11 percent of democrats and 30 percent of republicans say violence will be necessary to “save our country”, let’s take a guess at what that means.
The U.S. male population between the ages of 25 and 64 numbers 84.85 million. We can add outliers or subtract those not likely to fight and come up with 80 to 85 million. In my view the lower number is more likely so let’s call it 80 million. Dividing this in half with democrats on one side and republicans on the other, and speculating only one in one hundred is seriously considering engaging in violence, that infers around 400,000 “true believers” on each side. Going by the poll’s eleven and thirty percent, about 44,000 democrats and 120,000 republicans could be expected to show up and fight. Going by the poll is very misleading concerning democrats though, as they are not the aggressors in this and will understate. It may balance out to roughly equal numbers on both sides. Or…the republicans will have a big advantage in numbers and weapons at the beginning but this will rapidly fade.
Concerning the first civil war, “In July 1861, the two armies were nearly equal in strength with less than 200,000 soldiers on each side-”
I will predict a civil conflict will end quickly with either a democracy still in place or a fascist take-over. Creature comforts drive the masses and profit drives the one percent and any protracted civil conflict puts a stop to both those drivers.
In the event of a civil war, before Martial Law is declared and the military restores order, the better armed republicans are likely to inflict some massive blood-letting in any large clashes. However, to engage in those large clashes they are going to have to go to population centers and this is going to lower republican numbers somewhat and greatly increase democrat numbers. It seems a weird replay of the blitzkrieg with everything depending on how much violence the fascists can generate to effect a quick victory.
Being one of those cursed “libs”, I believe it would end with a democracy. But history gives numerous examples of autocrats taking control and nations descending into squalor and eternal decline or self-destructing. We should all be very afraid of what is happening right now. We are living in what will be one of the most important moments in history for humankind- and most of us do not have a clue about what is actually taking place. This could signal the beginning of the end of our species or the beginning of a post-neoliberal age and a profound change in the human condition.
And it is coming quick. If you do not think so:
Ice on the Moon 