Comments:
Ahhh…Mars. Complete dead end. Gerard K. O’Neill and his people concluded that spinning artificial hollow moons and space solar power is how to take out an insurance policy for humankind. The first step is to exploit the resources of the Moon. O”Neill proposed a state-sponsored public works project using space solar as the economic engine for space colony construction. Musk is the antithesis of this- Rocket Jesus is actually the anti-christ. Musk is the false prophet of space colonization and is strip-mining earth orbit.
Grasshopper
We can do both. And nothing is preventing us from producing artificial gravity on Mars. It’s just that 38% of Earth’s gravity might be enough.
My reply:
@Grasshopper Nothing preventing that except logic. Why waste resources on Mars when the same amount of time and effort would provide for “an order of magnitude” more people? Why go where there is less solar energy? The only way to provide artificial gravity on a lesser natural body is with some kind of circular accommodation like a train. I wrote about this years ago on my wordpress blog “Ice on the Moon” and called them “sleeper trains” to allow scientists or workers to do tours of duty on icy bodies. While ideal for keeping a limited number of people healthy on very low gravity icy moons and bodies like Ceres, it would never support large populations. The more gravity and less ice the difficulty and expense increase by “order of magnitude.” See how that works? The amount of gravity necessary to keep human beings healthy was decided over millions of years by evolution and that amount of gravity is 1G. Same with radiation. Musk is conning everyone by trivializing this. Wake up.
My reply to another comment:
@pebmets Fairly good analysis. I have read a stack of books on the shuttle over the years. I do not “appreciate” the shuttle and consider it the second biggest wrong turn NASA ever made. One of many wrong turns and the very worst wrong turn was falling under the sway of Musk, of course. NewSpace is the worst thing that has ever happened to space exploration. Worse than both shuttle disasters. I actually love looking at the starship- it is pretty cool. But…it has no escape system and really serves no purpose beyond what the shuttle did except to keep us trapped in LEO. And make no mistake, this thing is not going anywhere else. All that magic cryogen refueling in orbit? Not worth the trouble. Better ways to do it. There is no cheap.
@pebmets Yes, I was fascinated by the shuttle for several years even after initially reading that old Greg Easterbrook article, “Scotty beam me out of this deathtrap.” I never thought it was a worthwhile design in any way except one: the salient concept was to have a Saturn V class launch vehicle that only sacrificed one big tank and reused everything else. Unfortunately, while it did accomplish this, it also wasted most of that lift on putting a 737-size glider in LEO and bringing it right back down. Along with all the other problems, that came mostly from trying to go cheap, it was a tremendous waste. There is no cheap. Many people with the ability to think critically KNEW it was no good, they really did, but they went along with it and allowed all the hype to have it’s effect. Just like Musk and his shiny toy, it really all comes down to a few people with an agenda they are trying to profit off of. With Musk it is likely sycophants warping his wrong-headed “vision” of saving the world. Sad.
Other Comments:
“Utterly profound breakthrough”…to LEO? Got news, that “breakthrough” happened when Apollo 8 went to the Moon in 1968. Low Earth Orbit is, like Mars, a complete dead end. Lunar resources are the only “utterly profound” goal to be reached. And Starship is not going to the Moon without multiple refuelings of cryogens in space which nobody seems to understand is an absolute nightmare.
The engines have always been the tip-off that Musk is a hobbyist. The Saturn V F-1 and the space shuttle SRB’s were in the 2 million pound thrust range and that is the minimum starting point for Super Heavy Lift Vehicles. Otherwise you end up with way too many engines and profoundly violate the K.I.S.S. principle. The Raptor is about a quarter the size of the smallest engines most suited for big rockets.
Well…what inspires me is some medical treatments for old age so we have an indefinite lifespan because as long as we are all doomed then our species is also doomed to extinction. We just won’t care until we have some kind of future to care about. That is the holy grail to keep us from dying out…space travel comes after that. Once we stop dying then even if we practice limited reproduction, and we will not stop having children, we will have to eventually go to other stars. So Elon is an idiot if he thinks he is doing what makes sense. He should be investing in regenerative medicine, not rural video gamers.
Exactly: thousands of tons of water shielding and a 2km tether is about right. I wrote about this on my wordpress blog “Ice on the Moon.” Come and let’s discuss Chris.
Replied to a comment on STARSHIP EP4 – SHIP CONDITIONS
@Scott Manley To provide a carbon free western standard of living for 10 billion people the space solar power satellites will have to be manufactured in factories on the Moon. That will take around half a century if we start right now with it as an international goal. In the meantime solar thermal power plants and other measures are what will mitigate climate change but only mitigate. To build that lunar infrastructure we need bigger rockets than what Musk is building…and that means state sponsorship. Musks legion of toxic Ayn-Rand-in-space crazies want NASA dismantled and it all handed over to the great one. See how this works? Fully reusable sounds great but to get started we might stick with the original correct idea of the space shuttle which was to expend a single tank on the altar of the rocket equation. Unfortunately they went cheap and messed the shuttle up; that it did not even have an escape system makes that crystal clear. Too many small engines is part of that recipe for failure. There is no cheap. I hate to waste the opportunity to talk to you but I have to go. I will reply later today. Love your channel. Regards
Replied to a comment on Elon Musk Hates Flanges – Starship Update 2022
@Scott Manley “I’m not a rocket scientist.” Neither is Elon, but everyone seems to think he is. It is really about a billionaire hobbyist following a plan that was discarded as wrong-headed long ago. He has accomplished just enough to allow him to screw up the rest of space exploration and has set us back decades. He is riding the limited reusability success to the detriment of everything that makes any sense. Mars is a dead end. Really. O’Neill was right and space solar power is the solution and now it is the only solution to providing a western standard of living to 10 billion people. Wake up brother.
Replied to a comment on Elon Musk Hates Flanges – Starship Update 2022
@Scott Manley I don’t know if you have ever looked at my Blog Scott, but essentially it is about what I call the “Parker-Dyson-Spudis Continuum” which comes to a couple conclusions from an “O’Neillian” perspective. Gerard Kitchen O”Neill had some smart young people studying space colonization and one of the very first things they figured out is that Mars is a dead end and Space Solar Power as a state-sponsored public works project is the economic engine necessary to move humankind into space. That is, of course, the opposite of Musk. In my view the critical piece of the puzzle is what I call the “Fat Workshop”; a very large double-hulled upper stage to be partially filled with lunar-ice-derived water for cosmic ray shielding. It will require a SHLV with a much larger throw weight than what Musk is building to send those things to the vicinity of the Moon. At some point the ridiculous number of Raptor-size engines necessary so profoundly violates the K.I.S.S. principle that…well, I think you understand now.
Replied to a comment on Elon Musk Hates Flanges – Starship Update 2022
Engines in the 2 million pound thrust range are a fundamental prerequisite for Human Space Flight Beyond Earth Orbit. It is as simple as that and unfortunately the Raptor is an inferior piece of equipment in that regard. It is close to worthless because it takes so many of them to lift Super Heavy Lift Vehicles (SHLVs). That is just one feature of the shiny that nobody will acknowledge with the critical flaw being there is no escape system. It is just a different kind of shuttle with the same problems.
Commented on Elon Musk Hates Flanges – Starship Update 2022
Does not look right at all. Way too tall…like they just wanted the tallest rocket. They should have gone with 2 boosters mounted on either side like the space shuttle. The starship also has no escape system- a fundamental mistake they made with the shuttle. Considering how many prototypes blew up it seems like they would have the very top a capsule with the crew inside that could be blasted free by a solid rocket system. As is it is just a different kind of shuttle with the same critical flaw.
Commented on STACKED! SpaceX LIFTED Ship 20 With Chopstick Arm’s For The First Time.
I wrote blog entries on this several years ago on my wordpress blog Ice on the Moon posing the idea that small sat constellations are the opposite of what we should be doing. Actually…large Geosynchronous Earth Orbit human-crewed platforms in water shielded space stations would be immune to all these storms.
Commented on What should SpaceX do to avoid losing MORE satellites?!
Any extraterrestrials observing how we are strip mining our planetary orbit to play video games would come to the conclusion we are too stupid to survive and write us off as a soon-to-be extinct species.
Commented on Starlink Is Not Alone – And It Could Lead To Catastrophe | Answers With Joe
Ice on the Moon 