“Such regimes are particularly susceptible to outbreaks of armed conflict and unexpected or adverse changes in leadership.“
The storm is coming, the day of the rope, whatever label you want to use for catastrophe.
“Former democracies that transition to anocracy have a greater risk of being embroiled in civil conflict. The population’s awareness of what rights they had as a democratic society may compel them to fight to regain their rights and liberties.”
“As for the possibility that the Guard or military rank and file might refuse to follow orders to take up arms against armed Trump supporters, the Naval War College’s Cohn deems it unlikely. “There isn’t a ton of evidence that the rank and file are solidly behind Trump,” she says. “But whatever their beliefs, they’re highly professional. No more than a tiny percentage would refuse.”
But on the other hand:
Given the growing intensity and polarization of political life, would either side accept a decision that handed a contested 2024 election result to the other?
Such a decision would more likely bring tens of millions of protesters and counter-protesters into the streets, especially around the U.S. Capitol and possibly many state capitols, plunging the country into chaos. Although many Democrats might be inclined to demonstrate, a larger percentage of Republican protesters would almost certainly be carrying guns. If the Supreme Court ruling, expected in mid-2022, on New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen establishes an unrestricted right to carry a gun anywhere in the country, bringing firearms to the Capitol in Washington, D.C. could be perfectly legal. Says Winkler: “The Supreme Court may be close to issuing the ruling that leads to the overthrow of the U.S. government.”
“- “There are lots of fully armed people wondering what’s happening to this country-“
“Are we going to let Biden keep destroying it? Or do we need to get rid of him? We’re only going to take so much before we fight back.” The 2024 election, he adds, may well be the trigger. He may speak for millions when he insists it’s too late. “There are too many of us ready to give our lives to take the country back,” he says. “We need a civil war.”