Ice on the Moon

Rutger Hauer died on the 19th. His role in Bladerunner was one of the most famous in science fiction cinema. Today I watched the trailer for the 4th season of The Expanse. As my entry into old-man-hood at 60 approaches, the deaths of all these actors and actresses I grew up with “gives me pause.” The replicants in Bladerunner only had 5 years to live and were trying to extend their existence. In regards to The Expanse it is interesting that alien technology has allowed access to other star systems. That MacGuffin was never addressed in Bladerunner. The “Off-World Colonies” were where replicants were employed. I have always considered freezing people and then reviving them undamaged after decades to be the future of star travel. It is also the only chance I and my wife have of living more than another quarter century.

Gerard K. O’Neill envisioned a future with artificial worlds mass-produced as needed. The human race could then expand an order of magnitude. I always wonder just how big these hollow moons will be. NASA SP-413 does not address size except in terms of the minimum hull strengths required for the different types of habitats. What it does state is under one revolution per minute is likely not going to work well. To produce centripetal force equivalent to one gravity at the equator of a sphere with one revolution per minute will require a diameter of over a mile with a circumference of about 3.5 miles. Considering the supertankers, bridges, and skyscrapers we build on Earth, constructs on this scale undertaken on the Moon at one-sixth Earth gravity and then launched into space for assembly make one mile diameter hollow spheres quite reasonable projects.

It follows if the mega-constructs we build on Earth scale up in lunar gravity into 1 mile spheres then building one mile diameter spheres on Earth could scale up to six mile diameter spheres in zero gravity space. For the sake of this argument consider mass-produced six mile in diameter hollow spheres. If half of the interior surface is considered living space this would be about 50 square miles. About the size of San Francisco which has a population of over 800,000. How long could such a sphere last? If designed to constantly recycle its structure in some way then as long as it received enough solar energy and a small supply of necessary materials it would maintain integrity for thousands of years and longer. Sending such hollow moons to other star systems at a few percent of the speed of light is of course the next step for humankind. Younger versions of Earth await these arks sent to transplant species from old Earth. Or if there are no Earth analogs then new star systems as simply new asteroid belt factories to create more hollow moons.

After slow boats the most probable development to follow will be black hole starships. Nothing else has come close to this concept and may not for centuries to come. It may be that some of those asleep on those slow starships will be awakened to transfer to a much faster ride. This might have worked for Bladerunner as these ships would have taken people to the nearest star systems in as many years as light years. The amount of energy necessary to create these miniature black holes would require a truly immense solar space solar energy infrastructure. Beam propelling Bernal Spheres at a few percent of the speed of light will also require very high energies, with bombs used to slow down on arrival, but black holes are a couple orders of magnitude more energy intensive. There may be little chance of seeing fast ships overtaking slow ones until well into or near the end of the next century.

By Gary Michael Church

Today marks half a century since humans landed on the Moon. I was 8 years old. Sadly, I have no memory of the event. Most likely my father was at sea and my mother busy with her many children. I cannot ask them as they are now gone. I remember Star Trek being on too late for me anymore and peaking around the corner to watch but always getting caught.  I do have a vivid memory of watching the later Apollo 13 splash down on a black and white elementary school TV and my teacher crying.

Humans measure history by the century and begin with the “Common Era” 20 of those centuries ago. When one closes in on 60 they appreciate 50 years as making up a life mostly completed. At that stage, as various health problems manifest, mortality can no longer be denied. In regards to humankind half a century is actually quite significant when considering the last 20 full centuries making up most of recorded history. Before long the first quarter of the 21st century will end and I will be 65 years old. Averaging the lifespans of my mother and father I will then have only 15 short years left to live. The numbers do not lie.

The numbers tell me from the Wright brothers first flight in 1903 to the launch of Apollo 8 which carried humans beyond Earth orbit 65 years passed. In terms of humankind expanding off-world, no comparable progress has occurred. This is disturbing due to the problem of extinction. While individual oblivion shocks our sensibilities what is far worse is the numbing effect death has on the collective drive to preserve our species. This  juxtaposition of the individual and collective illuminates why we are in such danger. Nobody cares about a century from now. We are all prisoners on death row.

My granddaughter, born in 2016, may live to see the next century arrive. There is the distinct possibility medical advances will give her an indefinite lifespan. I am not optimistic right now about the world she will be living in. The only solution, in my view, is selfish and pragmatic. The way to save the world is to freeze people. Actually, not freeze them, but cryopreserve them without damage. The very real possibility of this was demonstrated around the turn of the century with Norio Owada’s Cells Alive system.  If ever there was a conspiracy theory this is it: we can freeze people and then revive them without damage. Perhaps I should try and go on that conspiracy radio show and expose the truth: “they” actually know how to freeze without damage and nobody needs to die! It is a conspiracy. The reality is it is most likely as a species we are simply too stupid to save survive. That we could not save ourselves if a dinosaur killing asteroid or comet was suddenly detected a few days away, despite having the technology to see them coming and deflect them for over half a century, is…

To save the world we have to save each individual. Then everybody cares as a collective. No other option.

Freezing people would surely change everything overnight. The entire human race would mobilize in “The Great Rescue” to save the 150,000 people who normally die every day. Then addressing the logical progression of steps that automatically follow. With approximately 56 million a year being frozen, within ten years half a billion will be in cold storage. The short list is how to freeze people, how to freeze a couple billion while we figure out how to reverse aging, and what to do when we start bringing them all back to life. Freezing people makes star travel practical so solving the first solves the last.

 

 

 

 

 

Space is the Cure for Climate Change
by Gary Michael Church

The energy problem cannot be solved on Earth; the energy must come from off-world.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), states immediate action on climate change is required if civilization is to avert disastrous levels of global warming. This problem was foreseen in the 1970’s by the prophet of space colonization, Gerard K. O’Neill. Unfortunately, contemporary neoliberal false prophets promote a different view.

In his book, The High Frontier, O’Neill mentioned the warming of the planet and offers space based solar power as the replacement for fossil fuels and the economic engine enabling migration to space colonies.

The time frame for setting up factories on the Moon is at least a half a century. Once production of orbital solar power stations begin it may take another quarter century before power beamed to antennae fields on Earth completely power the planet. There is also a high probability of beam propulsion being developed in concert with space solar commercial energy. The time frame for beginning migration of the majority of the human race into space is a minimum of a century. Once the exodus begins it would accelerate as more mass produced habitats (Bernal Spheres) become available.

The idea of mass producing miles in diameter hollow spinning moons has an undeserved eye-roll factor as zero gravity and plentiful energy make it far less a challenge than it seems. O’Neill proposed a “mass driver” to shoot lunar material off the surface to Libration Point foundries shaping these immense constructs. Plenty of factory space up there and all the energy you need.

A century from now Earth will have a population of between nine and fifteen billion people. Global warming is predicted to cause food shortages and other calamities that will likely keep the population at a lesser figure. Arguments citing the error of Erlich’s “The Population Bomb” and climate change denial will fill libraries but the demographics are now clear. We are in trouble. The deniers will be cursed and scorned by generations to come as some of the worst criminals in history.

The technology to move tens of billions into space to artificial worlds numbering in the tens of thousands by the next century is not science fiction. There is no miracle alien technology, no unobtainium or wishalloy needed, no handwavium required. The engineering challenges are clear and well understood.  The effort presently consumed by military projects and a vast service economy labor pool prove the resources are available.

To lift hundreds of thousands of tons at a time off the surface of the Moon without the benefit of yet-to-be-built solar powered beam propulsion seems a chicken or egg first problem. In reality another technology is readily available in the form of Nuclear Pulse Propulsion (hydrogen bombs). Considering the energy required for 10 billion people to live with a western standard living an international new green deal space civil works project is likely the only solution. It would  far more difficult to build solar and wind on Earth without contributing carbon that accelerates climate change in a self-defeating feedback loop. Space energy generated by power stations built with lunar resources would be zero carbon.

While notable celebrities have promoted the idea of humans becoming a multi-planet species there are problems with their various visions for the future. The first glaring deficit is the possibility we might go the way of the dinosaur before we ever get off-world. The originator of a “Space Force” may not be viewed kindly by history, but if the concept includes defending the planet from asteroid and comet impact threats he might be redeemed in one sense. Stanger things have happened.

The most efficient path to effect a force of spaceships capable of intercepting impact threats is by way of lunar resources. The work of the late Dr. Paul Spudis detailed the ice at the lunar poles as the critical key to revolutionizing space exploration. Water as cosmic ray shielding enables a “Parker-Dyson-Spudis Continuum” -recognizing the work of Eugene Parker and Freeman Dyson on shielding space travelers and nuclear space propulsion.

The logical progression is the Moon first using Super Heavy Lift Vehicles with their upper stages utilized as wet workshops. By using double-hulled “fat” stages attached to each other with tethers, the outer hulls filled with lunar water, a near sea level radiation one gravity environment is available. They can transit back across the cislunar sea to GEO to be used as commercial platforms or mate with nuclear modules and depart from Low Lunar Orbit as true spaceships.

To remove all nuclear weapons from Earth (into deep space), to power the planet with close to zero carbon emissions, to eventually reduce the world population to pre-industrial numbers; all this is possible, and likely necessary, if our species is to survive. At the same time the superpower nuclear arsenals are removed to deep space, the building of tremendous lunar factories, and generating more space solar energy than all the power plants on Earth combined (and making a “Nuclear Moon” the new home of the nuclear industry).

Space can realize the dreams of many disparate groups in one combined initiative. Space is the solution to the most serious problems facing humankind- and much more not described in this short commentary. We have the technology and the resources. We need only choose to go.

Gary Church, who writes frequently about space travel, has published a magazine article entitled “Water and Bombs” promoting Nuclear Pulse Propulsion. He blogs at Ice on the Moon.

I finally seem to have ended mourning Dr. Spudis. It was a terrible blow losing him.

On the bright side, the Toxic Dragon blew up yesterday. Hopefully it is one more nail in the coffin of Commercial Crew.

It might finally be time to try and take this blog mainstream and start allowing comments. I will have to think about it and also some new themes. The idea of using Blue Origin stages to replace the SRB’s on the SLS seems to be a good idea to try and promote.

Edit: One sociopathic NewSpace  cyberstalker has linked this page for ridicule and calls it the “New Gary booster” (a play on the New Glenn).

After Apollo we accomplished “LEO return” which was both a step backward and a wrong turn. LEO stopped being space exploration after Apollo 8 left it far behind. Abandoning LEO in favor of funding “LLO return” is the right path to correct that near half a century old mistake.

The three problems with LLO are first the mascons that make low lunar orbits unstable. Stable “frozen” orbits are now understood and that problem is solved. The second problem is the radiation environment and the solution is ice-as-water-shielding dipped out of the Moons shallow gravity well. The third is of course getting hardware there and a wet workshop/robot lander combination for a Super Heavy Lift Vehicle can place large habitats in LLO and fill their radiation shields. The eventual 130 metric ton lift of the SLS makes this practical with few technical challenges.

The first such water shielded workshops could also be utilized as lunar cyclers to provide commuter service to and from the Moon. This would make the Muskrats happy by possibly giving the hobby rocket a job as a taxi intercepting the cyclers as they swing around the Earth.

“While the advent of lower expense through reusable rockets is touted as a major factor for lowered cost-”

The NewSpace mob are fraudulent space advocates. It has become clear they could care less about Human Space Flight and consider it a P.R. device. They care about one thing and one thing only: promoting the flagship company.

They have been posing as Human Space Flight supporters for close to a decade when in reality they are the worst thing that has ever happened to space exploration.

By conflating satellite launch with Human Space Flight they have popularized this confidence scheme handing over a satellite launch company paid for with taxpayer dollars.
It is a dead end road.

“-we know giant impacts periodically destroy life forms on Earth. Perhaps someday, humans will be killed off too, but our descendants living on the Moon and beyond will survive and prosper.”

A state sponsored Super Heavy Lift Vehicle program (the SLS) is the only hope of a permanent human presence Beyond Earth Orbit (BEO). The NewSpace fans have posted libraries of death-to-SLS propaganda over the years and forever inferred it best to “hand it all over to Musk” and dismantle the space agency. The astroturfing is incessant and…it never ends.

From Apollo 4 story:

Dosing and debilitation are remedied with massive water shielding and tethers. Not really any other options except accepting dosing and debilitation which is….unacceptable. Trivializing these two most critical problems is the standard response but…obfuscation, denial, and misinformation is not going to fly when it is obvious radiation and zero gravity will certainly wreck the health of astronauts on long missions.

Containing a kiloton range water shield and spinning it for one gravity is best dealt with by using a structure already built to take multiple G loads- the spent upper stage. Thus, the wet workshop becomes the way to go and the shallow gravity well to dip those thousands of tons of spaceship water out of is the lunar poles. Robot landers can be used to extract and shuttle that water-derived-from-ice from the surface of the Moon to the workshops in Low Lunar Orbit (LLO). So LEO is a dead end and LLO is the place to go.

This leads to the only practical system for pushing such a multi-thousand ton mass around the solar system: Nuclear Pulse Propulsion (hydrogen bombs). Or…as you called it, “NuSpace”. LEO is the worst place to assemble, test, and launch such nuclear missions. In the short term Solem’s Medusa-type spinnaker sail can be used while in the long term the lunar-manufactured monolithic plate. In the short term the shuttle-heritage propulsion and powerful Launch Abort System of the SLS could transport appropriately packaged bomb pits directly to the vicinity of the Moon. In the long term lunar thorium could be transmuted into bomb-grade material.

From Bridenstine  story:

NASA needs to focus on the deployment of SLS wet workshops to Low Lunar Orbit (LLO), and robot landers to the surface of the Moon. Once such robot landers begin shuttling In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) propellant and water-as-shielding payloads for the workshops then such technology should provide Lunar Cyclers and LLO habitats for astronauts. With tether systems providing 1G this will enable a sustained long term human presence Beyond Earth Orbit and a spaceship/space station construction pipeline.

 

Jeff Foust has allowed me to post comments on his blog “The Space Review” and I have linked Ice on the Moon with those comments. I am in fact surprised none of the people replying to my comments have been here yet. They will come. Here are some of my comments from the review:

“It was actually addressed in the shuttle program with the pressure-fed ocean recovered booster. Perhaps the single most egregious wrong turn in the space program was going with the SRB as a cost-cutting measure. The pressure-fed ocean recovered booster is still the missing piece of technology required to enable efficient Super Heavy Lift Vehicle operations. As I have commented many times, Musk and Bezos both failed the genius test by not going straight to the 1972 TRW booster study as a model.”

And, after some wailing and gnashing of teeth replies:

“I guess I should address the validity of the supposed “shortcomings” of pressure-feds:

1. Yes, pressure-feds are built to contain high pressure which means they are quite tough and will last…for repeated launches. The Ares 1X SRB casings were some of the original ones from the 80’s so these kind of boosters can be reused, unlike others, without worrying about their fragility.
2. Comparatively little extra mass is added in regards to pressure supply and this pressure provides even more structural integrity to add to the already robust heavy duty structure.
3. Parachutes add comparatively little mass and are…reusable.
4. Recovering the boosters for reuse by ship is part of the no-land-back reuse scenario. Land-backs require far more powered maneuvering, throttling, landing arrangements, fuel, etc.

The land-back concept, whether to land or barge, subjects the far more fragile non-pressure-fed to a harder landing and requires fuel and landing gear mass. Considering the inspections required to turbopumps and structure the pressure-fed may very well come out ahead in efficiency (and of course, price). The critical advantage is the multi-million pound thrust of ocean recovered boosters compared to much smaller land-back concepts.”

And after a comment about space plane type return of engines after launch:

“I have to disagree. In terms of simple the pressure-fed being parachuted into the ocean simply cannot be beat. I would add that a core stage going to the Moon could actually separate the engine group from the stage after escaping Earth gravity, do a free return around the Moon back to Earth, and with heat shield, parachute, and salt water protection system, also be recovered at sea for reuse. This would allow the empty core stage structure to continue on to Low Lunar Orbit (LLO) and be utilized as a wet workshop.”

And after a fairly ridiculous comment criticizing the wet workshop concept:

“How do you make this stuff up? The Wet workshop is not built in space, it is built on the ground and components stored as payload separated from the tanks. The equipment is moved into the tanks and bolted down in space when the tanks are no longer “wet”. Hence, the “workshop”. It has always been a no-brainer this is the way to go. Except of course, it you are promoting a rocket not big enough for practical wet workshop applications.

The wet workshop cannot be beat because it turns the empty fuel stage into crew quarters and is thus the ultimate reuse scheme. It has been the case for years that anything not found on the flagship company website by NewSpace advocates is denigrated and dismissed. Sad.”

“I would suggest the next iteration of the SLS be built for placing a wet workshop core in Low Lunar Orbit (LLO) using the payload- a lunar lander- engine for the burn. This iteration would also make use of advanced boosters built as pressure-fed ocean recovered components supplying hydrogen and oxygen propellants to the core stage engine group during the initial launch phase. Studies were done of Saturn V designs with this feature and the falcon heavy was also proposed with a propellant cross-feed system.

The core stage would achieve escape velocity and head for the Moon at which point the engine group would separate and follow a free return around the Moon back to Earth, re-enter with heat shield, salt water protection system, and parachute into the ocean for reuse. The empty stage with lunar lander attached as payload would use the lander engine to insert into Low Lunar Orbit. The lander would then descend to the ice deposits and from the ice take on a load of water and manufacture new propellants.

The semi-expendable robot lander would then make repeated trips between the surface and the workshop to transfer water-as-radiation shielding. When the radiation shield was full then two such workshops would be connected with a tether system and spun up to 1 gravity. With massive kiloton range water shields providing a near-sea-level radiation environment and artificial gravity astronauts arriving from Earth would suffer no dosing or debilitation. With large enough living quarters these astronauts could manage tours of several years without any physiological damage.”

And after a typical NewSpace-state-hate-libertarian reply:

“Government efforts are why we are in space- not “private” efforts. You are practicing blatant cognitive dissonance. There is not going to be any “free” space station. There is no cheap. The only significant revenues coming from space are GEO telecom satellites, the rest is fantasy. Only state sponsored programs using Super Heavy Lift Vehicles will expand the human presence into the solar system. “Private space” is a stumbling block as long as the fans keep pushing their tourist and Mars fantasies.

The reality is Skylab was large enough to test the wet workshop concept but was only funded as a dry workshop. For want of a few million dollars a space station with a larger interior space than the ISS could have been sent up in one evening for about the cost of one shuttle launch. The “reusable” shuttle, which threw away a most useful structure and instead brought up small pieces one at a time over a decade resulted in a 180 billion dollar Albatross that is now in the process of dying of old age. While the workshop has equipment installed from a payload area the inflatable of course has a problem with bolting anything down.

The entire inflatable concept is inherently flawed in terms of a space station or spaceship crew compartment if artificial gravity or powered maneuvering is required. It originated with not having a large enough stage to use as a wet or dry workshop. Private space does not have what it takes.

An inflatable might work in a lava tube on the Moon.”

And last of today:

“From wiki:
“-the M-1 project was uprated from 1.2 million pounds force to a nominal 1.5 million pounds force, and the designers deliberately added more turbopump capability to allow it to expand to at least 1.8 million pounds force and potentially as high as 2.0 million pounds force.[1]”

The SLS is presently being built with four RS-25 engines when a single M-1 would do the trick. No really big engines that compare with past efforts are being contemplated. Concerning these new engines a contest between satellite launch concerns is a better description than “engine wars.”

Human Space Flight Beyond Earth Orbit (HSF-BEO ) is going to require Super Heavy Lift Vehicles with those really big engines. My favorite was always the “notional” 325 inch solid with 15 million pounds of thrust. A pair of those (actually they were proposed mounted quad) would triple the thrust of the SLS. But the environmental concerns with SRB’s are not going away and a pressure-fed is the better direction to go in for advanced SLS boosters. The problem is the solid fuel lobby is not going to like a new pressure-fed booster in development taking money out of their pockets.”

We live at the bottom of gravity well that dictates design, analoguous to Feynman’s quote- “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.”

This means that no matter how many sci-fi movies portray SSTO and no matter how many NewSpace infomercials scream cheap, “there is no free lunch.” By the way, the other famous Heinlein quote about Earth orbit being “halfway to anywhere” was revised to “Low Earth Orbit” as a NewSpace marketing ploy – He never said LEO and may just as easily have meant GEO.
LEO is not really space and is a dead end.

To achieve escape velocity (not so much orbital velocity) hydrogen upper stages are almost a necessity. To go anywhere Beyond Earth and Lunar Orbit (BELO) with humans requires massive shielding and chemical propulsion will not work. Only nuclear energy can push such mass (until some kind of beam propulsion infrastructure exists). That said, the only practical form of nuclear propulsion is “pulse” or, to put it bluntly, bombs.

This means that inside the Earth’s magnetosphere only chemical propulsion is practical due to fallout eventually being sucked into the atmosphere. This works out fine because just outside the magnetosphere is the Moon and that is where we have to go for the water-as-radiation-shielding anyway.

To keep this as short as possible, only progressively more powerful iterations of a Super Heavy Lift Vehicle used in a state sponsored public works project to develop a cislunar infrastructure has any chance of success. NewSpace is a scam that ends in the dead end of LEO.

And that makes their flagship companies inferior lift launch vehicle a hobby rocket.

NewSpace has been doing one thing for years yet nobody ever talks about it: the Ayn-Rand-in-Space Musk groupies damn the space agency and cal for it to be done away with on one page and praise NASA for pouring several billion tax dollars into commercial cargo and commercial crew on another.

They have nothing bad to say about the over one hundred billion dollar space station to nowhere yet curse all government “porkonaut projects” not connected to SpaceX (like the SLS) as pure evil. If these two-faced deceivers were not so damaging to the future of space exploration their idiotic contradictions would be funny.