The “old” era of heavy launch was the Saturn V and this supposed “new” era is predicated on a vehicle much like the N-1, the failed Soviet counterpart of the U.S. Moon rocket. There were three primary features of the Saturn V that made it successful, the first being the F-1 engine, second the use of hydrogen upper stages, and third a space agency able to appropriately manage the program.
The shiny new vehicle has no counterparts to the F-1 engine or hydrogen upper stages while its most remarkable features are the reusable stages and the landing procedure for those stages. In regard to appropriate management, the shiny destroyed itself on its first flight due to the lack of a proper launch pad. Even before the failure of the first flight, the upper stage “test flights” were four fiery explosions in a row, the same as the N-1. This gave the program more the appearance of a hobbyist trying to get his new toy to work.
The upper and lower stages use stainless steel to manage heat, also used by America’s first orbital human space flight launch vehicle, the 1957 Atlas, which makes them much heavier than an aluminum alloy construct. The upper stage is like a combination of the space shuttle external tank and orbiter, with a short and fat cargo section stacked on top, with no big doors, and with some small control surfaces instead of the orbiter’s wings. Despite the steel, the upper stage has to re-enter with tiles perfectly, like a much-larger shuttle orbiter, and land even more perfectly.
The “chopsticks” used to catch the stages and the “belly flop” maneuver used by the second stage virtually guarantee it will never carry humans unless something that can escape and also lands them separately is added. It was designed to launch tens of thousands of LEO megaconstellation satellites. The 33 engines in the first stage are…not sound engineering, but rather about having only a too-small engine. The small engines and the use of methane were doubtless seen as “cheaper” but the complexity of so many of them and the not-dense, not-hi Isp propellant, which is the worst of hydrogen and kerosene, nullify any advantages.
I predict Spruce-Goosedom.
Space-based solar power production could be enabled by Starship if the cost of in-space systems can be contained. One reference design for a two-gigawatt power station would weigh 7,500 MT. Earth to LEO transportation for such a station would take 50 Starship launches –
500 of these two-gigawatt power stations would produce one terawatt. The world presently uses 15 terawatts. A wild guess of double that power consumption by the end of the century for a population of 10 billion with a reasonable standard of living (aided by terrestrial solar, wind, and conservation measures) and the target requirement is 30 terawatts, or 30,000 gigawatts.
Using the author’s reference design and a wild guess results in 15,000 power stations or 750,000 Starship launches. Spaced out over half a century that works out to 15,000 launches a year or 300 launches a week for a 50 week year and about 43 launches a day.
Rounding up to 50 Starship launches a day, broken down to 10 from North America, 10 from South America, 10 from Europe, 10 from Africa, and 10 from Asia.
Somebody please check my math.
The worst threats to civilization can be mitigated by focusing on humankind expanding into the solar system. The public understands that dinosaurs died because they were stupid, even if our so intelligent bean counters say there is not enough risk for our species to spend money on defending against extinction. The public also understands that when so many scientists are saying that climate change is an unfolding catastrophe, maybe the tiny minority paying for fake news denying that should not be allowed to give money to our politicians. A permanent presence in cislunar space can enable Space Solar Power as the solution to climate change, impact deflection, and eventually space colonies that can survive anything else that could happen on Earth.
In other words, stupidity killed the dinosaurs, but greed might be what does us in. It is encouraging that “the public” are smarter than the NewSpace “experts” commenting here.
In an effort to figure out what wrong turns America has taken since the Reagan Revolution a term being explored by progressives lately is “welfare capitalism.” The model for this is General Electric, which was wrecked by Jack Welch, whose ideology of “wealth creation” spread to Boeing and other companies in the 80s. Now we have NewSpace fanboys endlessly excoriating Boeing due to SLS competing for funding with their Cult’s flagship company. Creating new things was essentially replaced by wealth creation in the United States after 1980. Welfare capitalism, exemplified by the super-success of GE, had poured the largest percentage of profits to the lowest paid workers, resulting in the wealthiest middle class in history during that midpoint of the 20th century. This was how blue-collar workers like my father owned a home and a couple cars and raised a family on a single income in the 60s. Trickle-down Reaganomics, and the wealth creation work culture, reversed where the profits went and went far beyond, with a pernicious effect on society resulting in the destruction of the middle class we are now seeing. Jack Welch was a big part of that. His infamy grows daily as people realize just how much damage he did. And one day I believe the same level of infamy will be visited on Elon Musk. Just as Welch was worshipped as the new model of executive and CEO to be emulated, Musk fills a similar role today and goes far beyond that as the Tony Stark/Howard Roark/John Galt hero of an Ayn-Rand-in-space right-wing cult. A cult often identified with the ideology known as “NewSpace.”
Musk’s infamy is to be found in his corruption of what NASA used to call “the dream.” This was often used during the Shuttle program, along with the slogan, “the dream is alive.” In the minds of that small percentage of the population who were space enthusiasts, “the dream” had to do with humankind leaving Earth and expanding into the solar system and beyond. The most influential of all those advocating for space exploration and colonization after Apollo was Gerard K. O’Neill, whose popular 1976 book, “The High Frontier”, envisioned Space Solar Power by way of lunar resources as the economic engine of future space colonies. Other planets like Mars were eliminated as candidates for colonization and artificial-miles-in-diameter-spinning-hollow-moons were identified as the path to expanding humankind into space. After Elon Musk started his rocket company in 2002 he effectively did a Jack Welch to the space colonization movement by proposing Mars as the place to go to make humanity a “multiplanet species.” He also called Space Solar Power, “the stupidest idea ever.” His entreprenuerial success and personal wealth has attracted a particular conservative/libertarian personality type that very quickly hijacked all public forums. The “fanboys”, as they became known on discussion boards, are toxic, abusive, malicious, and just plain rotten creeps to anyone not in their cult. They have had a tremendous unrealized negative effect on public opinion in regard to space exploration. The damage NewSpace has done to the public’s perception of space is pervasive and insidious. Space is no longer “the dream” and is now a for-profit enterprise. Satellite entrepreneurship and Low Earth Orbit megaconstellations have become the focus while any attempt to promote the original vision of O’Neill and other space advocates is ignored and if addressed is actively trivialized, mocked, and denigrated by the fanboys. Many Musk cultists are also Trumpists, anti-vaxxers, and climate change deniers.
Space Solar Power by way of lunar resources as the solution to Climate Change is the realization of all the dreams of space proponents. It is, in every way, “The Dream.” Yet the cult of Musk has, in every way, fought tooth and nail against it. Musk fanboys will at every opportunity argue endlessly against anything not from the mind of their cult leader. Along with the Koch organization and others, NewSpace fans and Musk will bear responsibility for the damage resulting from climate change denialism. And for this they will be forever scorned and hated.
Ice on the Moon 